MIA 125-119 ORL, January 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat ORL 125-119, but ORL's shots were worth 126.3 points to MIA's 117.3.

MIA 125-119 ORL, January 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	92	111	100.6	14/21	16.8	125	117.3
ORL	98	104	106.9	15/25	19.4	119	126.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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