ATL 119-122 TOR, January 23, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. TOR beat ATL 122-119, but ATL's shots were worth 123.8 points to TOR's 110.4.

ATL 119-122 TOR, January 23, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	87	97	100.8	22/30	23.0	119	123.8
TOR	81	103	92.3	19/24	18.1	122	110.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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