NOP 107-111 MIL, April 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIL beat NOP 111-107, and MIL's shots were worth 105.7 points to NOP's 103.0.

NOP 107-111 MIL, April 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	95	98	92.5	9/14	10.5	107	103.0
MIL	92	97	88.3	14/22	17.4	111	105.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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