HOU 109-108 CLE, January 22, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat CLE 109-108, but CLE's shots were worth 120.6 points to HOU's 112.3.

HOU 109-108 CLE, January 22, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	91	95	98.1	14/20	14.2	109	112.3
CLE	97	95	104.9	13/19	15.7	108	120.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.