NOP 123-119 UTA, January 20, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. NOP beat UTA 123-119, but UTA's shots were worth 134.4 points to NOP's 124.0.

NOP 123-119 UTA, January 20, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	92	97	100.4	26/29	23.6	123	124.0
UTA	106	95	112.4	24/30	22.0	119	134.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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