MIA 128-107 SAS, January 19, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. MIA beat SAS 128-107, and MIA's shots were worth 117.2 points to SAS's 111.8.

MIA 128-107 SAS, January 19, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	95	118	109.2	10/10	8.0	128	117.2
SAS	91	97	99.0	10/16	12.8	107	111.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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