MIA 113-133 DEN, January 17, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. DEN beat MIA 133-113, and DEN's shots were worth 117.6 points to MIA's 114.8.

MIA 113-133 DEN, January 17, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	91	99	103.5	14/14	11.3	113	114.8
DEN	92	116	102.4	17/19	15.3	133	117.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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