WAS 123-130 PHX, January 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat WAS 130-123, but WAS's shots were worth 127.4 points to PHX's 118.0.

WAS 123-130 PHX, January 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
WAS	92	105	106.4	18/27	21.0	123	127.4
PHX	85	104	91.4	26/31	26.5	130	118.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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