MIL 122-93 ORL, January 15, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat ORL 122-93, but ORL's shots were worth 116.1 points to MIL's 102.3.

MIL 122-93 ORL, January 15, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	72	97	75.7	25/35	26.6	122	102.3
ORL	95	78	100.3	15/21	15.8	93	116.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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