TOR 104-101 GSW, January 13, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. TOR beat GSW 104-101, but GSW's shots were worth 112.3 points to TOR's 109.3.

TOR 104-101 GSW, January 13, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	86	94	98.1	10/15	11.1	104	109.3
GSW	88	86	95.3	15/22	17.0	101	112.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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