POR 98-119 MIA, January 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat POR 119-98, but POR's shots were worth 123.3 points to MIA's 119.5.

POR 98-119 MIA, January 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	95	85	108.5	13/19	14.7	98	123.3
MIA	92	107	106.6	12/16	12.8	119	119.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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