DET 123-114 TOR, January 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DET beat TOR 123-114, but TOR's shots were worth 115.7 points to DET's 102.0.

DET 123-114 TOR, January 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DET	84	107	85.8	16/21	16.2	123	102.0
TOR	92	96	95.4	18/27	20.3	114	115.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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