ATL 96-100 HOU, January 28, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HOU beat ATL 100-96, but ATL's shots were worth 109.2 points to HOU's 106.4.

ATL 96-100 HOU, January 28, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	89	83	96.6	13/16	12.6	96	109.2
HOU	79	81	91.8	19/20	14.6	100	106.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.