DEN 126-103 LAC, January 8, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat LAC 126-103, but LAC's shots were worth 118.3 points to DEN's 117.7.

DEN 126-103 LAC, January 8, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	89	115	105.4	11/17	12.3	126	117.7
LAC	80	71	87.0	32/40	31.4	103	118.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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