GSW 98-114 MIA, January 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat GSW 114-98, but GSW's shots were worth 108.3 points to MIA's 105.6.

GSW 98-114 MIA, January 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
GSW	98	94	104.4	4/5	3.9	98	108.3
MIA	91	102	92.2	12/17	13.3	114	105.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All NBA games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.