NOP 97-104 MIN, January 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIN beat NOP 104-97, but NOP's shots were worth 123.0 points to MIN's 113.3.

NOP 97-104 MIN, January 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NOP	94	82	105.0	15/24	17.9	97	123.0
MIN	89	91	97.9	13/19	15.4	104	113.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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