TOR 104-128 MIL, January 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat TOR 128-104, but TOR's shots were worth 119.1 points to MIL's 105.5.

TOR 104-128 MIL, January 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	91	91	103.0	13/21	16.1	104	119.1
MIL	82	116	93.3	12/15	12.3	128	105.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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