SAS 111-122 DEN, January 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat SAS 122-111, but SAS's shots were worth 134.0 points to DEN's 133.7.

SAS 111-122 DEN, January 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
SAS	104	95	119.4	16/18	14.6	111	134.0
DEN	108	104	116.5	18/23	17.3	122	133.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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