MIL 102-105 POR, January 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. POR beat MIL 105-102, but MIL's shots were worth 112.4 points to POR's 103.3.

MIL 102-105 POR, January 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	95	95	105.4	7/9	7.0	102	112.4
POR	85	95	92.7	10/13	10.5	105	103.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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