DEN 110-113 SAS, January 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. SAS beat DEN 113-110, but DEN's shots were worth 117.6 points to SAS's 114.6.

DEN 110-113 SAS, January 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	97	99	105.1	11/16	12.5	110	117.6
SAS	99	105	104.3	8/13	10.3	113	114.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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