HOU 100-104 MIA, December 29, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIA beat HOU 104-100, but HOU's shots were worth 110.7 points to MIA's 107.8.

HOU 100-104 MIA, December 29, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	97	89	100.6	11/13	10.1	100	110.7
MIA	84	84	85.5	20/28	22.3	104	107.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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