CHI 116-111 MIL, December 28, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. CHI beat MIL 116-111, but MIL's shots were worth 121.6 points to CHI's 119.6.

CHI 116-111 MIL, December 28, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CHI	95	104	105.9	12/17	13.7	116	119.6
MIL	102	97	109.3	14/14	12.3	111	121.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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