ATL 120-110 MIA, December 28, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. ATL beat MIA 120-110, but MIA's shots were worth 118.8 points to ATL's 118.3.

ATL 120-110 MIA, December 28, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ATL	86	103	100.6	17/22	17.7	120	118.3
MIA	90	93	103.8	17/18	15.0	110	118.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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