SAC 99-103 LAL, December 21, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. LAL beat SAC 103-99, but SAC's shots were worth 98.5 points to LAL's 95.9.

SAC 99-103 LAL, December 21, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
SAC	90	88	87.3	11/14	11.2	99	98.5
LAL	83	89	79.0	14/21	16.8	103	95.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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