MIA 97-104 OKC, December 20, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. OKC beat MIA 104-97, but MIA's shots were worth 99.5 points to OKC's 98.5.

MIA 97-104 OKC, December 20, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	83	84	83.4	13/20	16.1	97	99.5
OKC	86	92	85.5	12/17	13.0	104	98.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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