ORL 99-105 OKC, December 19, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. OKC beat ORL 105-99, but ORL's shots were worth 102.9 points to OKC's 99.6.

ORL 99-105 OKC, December 19, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ORL	78	81	84.3	18/25	18.6	99	102.9
OKC	83	90	86.7	15/16	12.9	105	99.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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