TOR 118-125 DAL, December 7, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. DAL beat TOR 125-118, but TOR's shots were worth 121.3 points to DAL's 120.0.

TOR 118-125 DAL, December 7, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	93	101	107.6	17/18	13.8	118	121.3
DAL	81	93	91.4	32/37	28.6	125	120.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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