HOU 98-104 POR, November 23, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. POR beat HOU 104-98, but HOU's shots were worth 114.2 points to POR's 113.2.

HOU 98-104 POR, November 23, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HOU	90	72	89.4	26/33	24.8	98	114.2
POR	90	86	94.9	18/23	18.2	104	113.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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