TOR 130-119 IND, November 18, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. TOR beat IND 130-119, but IND's shots were worth 128.5 points to TOR's 116.7.

TOR 130-119 IND, November 18, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	82	110	96.8	20/28	19.9	130	116.7
IND	99	103	112.8	16/20	15.7	119	128.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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