MIL 127-120 DET, November 13, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat DET 127-120, but DET's shots were worth 122.6 points to MIL's 121.7.

MIL 127-120 DET, November 13, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	95	105	104.5	22/25	17.2	127	121.7
DET	100	110	112.6	10/13	10.0	120	122.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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