DEN 135-122 MIA, November 8, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat MIA 135-122, but MIA's shots were worth 115.0 points to DEN's 107.5.

DEN 135-122 MIA, November 8, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	81	118	91.8	17/19	15.7	135	107.5
MIA	94	112	105.0	10/13	9.9	122	115.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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