PHX 115-112 MIA, November 6, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. PHX beat MIA 115-112, but MIA's shots were worth 114.1 points to PHX's 100.6.

PHX 115-112 MIA, November 6, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHX	84	102	86.7	13/18	13.9	115	100.6
MIA	92	93	98.0	19/20	16.1	112	114.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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