OKC 102-86 ORL, November 4, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. OKC beat ORL 102-86, but ORL's shots were worth 112.4 points to OKC's 104.1.

OKC 102-86 ORL, November 4, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
OKC	85	90	91.3	12/16	12.8	102	104.1
ORL	82	63	90.9	23/27	21.5	86	112.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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