TOR 131-128 SAC, November 2, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. TOR beat SAC 131-128, but SAC's shots were worth 136.1 points to TOR's 132.1.

TOR 131-128 SAC, November 2, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
TOR95109109.322/3122.8131132.1
SAC100102110.326/3225.8128136.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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