MIA 107-116 NYK, October 30, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. NYK beat MIA 116-107, but MIA's shots were worth 101.2 points to NYK's 99.4.

MIA 107-116 NYK, October 30, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	81	91	82.2	16/24	19.0	107	101.2
NYK	82	98	83.1	18/20	16.3	116	99.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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