TOR 125-127 DEN, October 28, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat TOR 127-125, but TOR's shots were worth 135.0 points to DEN's 125.1.

TOR 125-127 DEN, October 28, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
TOR	109	108	119.0	17/21	16.0	125	135.0
DEN	96	103	101.5	24/30	23.6	127	125.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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