POR 103-105 NOP, October 25, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. NOP beat POR 105-103, but POR's shots were worth 120.3 points to NOP's 114.9.

POR 103-105 NOP, October 25, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
POR	90	87	103.9	16/20	16.4	103	120.3
NOP	86	84	92.7	21/31	22.2	105	114.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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