PHI 109-124 MIL, October 23, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat PHI 124-109, but PHI's shots were worth 126.8 points to MIL's 117.0.

PHI 109-124 MIL, October 23, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PHI	98	90	106.0	19/27	20.9	109	126.8
MIL	80	102	94.0	22/31	22.9	124	117.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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