DEN 119-115 GSW, December 3, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. DEN beat GSW 119-115, but GSW's shots were worth 121.4 points to DEN's 113.7.

DEN 119-115 GSW, December 3, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DEN	79	91	85.9	28/35	27.8	119	113.7
GSW	95	100	105.6	15/21	15.8	115	121.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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