DET 107-128 MIL, December 3, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat DET 128-107, but DET's shots were worth 110.6 points to MIL's 100.2.

DET 107-128 MIL, December 3, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
DET	87	91	92.9	16/22	17.7	107	110.6
MIL	80	113	85.0	15/21	15.2	128	100.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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