MIA 103-106 MIL, November 26, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat MIA 106-103, but MIA's shots were worth 107.6 points to MIL's 92.8.

MIA 103-106 MIL, November 26, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIA	77	80	83.0	23/30	24.6	103	107.6
MIL	77	92	78.6	14/17	14.2	106	92.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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