MIL 129-117 IND, November 22, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat IND 129-117, but IND's shots were worth 122.6 points to MIL's 118.2.

MIL 129-117 IND, November 22, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MIL	90	113	103.6	16/20	14.6	129	118.2
IND	91	97	101.6	20/27	20.9	117	122.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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