Varese 85-84 Trieste, October 10, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. Varese beat Trieste 85-84, but Trieste's shots were worth 95.4 points to Varese's 92.6.

Varese 85-84 Trieste, October 10, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Varese656772.018/2820.68592.6
Trieste706073.524/2921.98495.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2026-27

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.