Bologna 104-85 Varese, May 10, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. Bologna beat Varese 104-85, and Bologna's shots were worth 101.0 points to Varese's 88.4.

Bologna 104-85 Varese, May 10, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
Bologna	70	81	79.1	23/29	22.0	104	101.0
Varese	69	75	74.1	10/19	14.3	85	88.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.