Milano 86-78 Trieste, May 3, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. Milano beat Trieste 86-78, and Milano's shots were worth 85.0 points to Trieste's 79.5.

Milano 86-78 Trieste, May 3, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
Milano	67	66	69.4	20/20	15.6	86	85.0
Trieste	58	62	63.4	16/21	16.1	78	79.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.