Udine 81-92 Varese, March 8, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. Varese beat Udine 92-81, but Udine's shots were worth 91.7 points to Varese's 89.0.

Udine 81-92 Varese, March 8, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Udine666778.114/1813.68191.7
Varese708179.211/139.89289.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.