Napoli 64-79 Venezia, February 8, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. Venezia beat Napoli 79-64, but Napoli's shots were worth 89.4 points to Venezia's 76.7.

Napoli 64-79 Venezia, February 8, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Napoli735178.613/1410.76489.4
Venezia667268.67/118.17976.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.