Udine 80-82 Bologna, October 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. Bologna beat Udine 82-80, but Udine's shots were worth 90.8 points to Bologna's 83.6.

Udine 80-82 Bologna, October 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Udine666372.617/2518.38090.8
Bologna626366.519/2217.18283.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.