Treviso 100-102 Brescia, October 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. Brescia beat Treviso 102-100, but Treviso's shots were worth 90.7 points to Brescia's 78.2.

Treviso 100-102 Brescia, October 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Treviso868779.213/1511.510090.7
Brescia678762.915/2015.310278.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.