Varese 85-87 Cremona, April 6, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. Cremona beat Varese 87-85, but Varese's shots were worth 87.0 points to Cremona's 84.2.

Varese 85-87 Cremona, April 6, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
Varese	64	63	63.0	22/31	24.0	85	87.0
Cremona	61	69	65.1	18/25	19.2	87	84.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.